by Charles Simpson, Mexinvestnow.com

First: A reality check on Mexico

Mexico is in a unique position to reap many of the benefits of the decline of the US economy. In order to not violate NAFTA and other agreements the U.S.A. cannot use direct protectionism, so it is content to allow the media to play this protectionist role. The U.S. media – over the last year – has portrayed Mexico as being on the brink of economic collapse and civil war. The Mexican people are either beheaded, kidnapped, poor, corrupt, or narco-traffickers. The American news media was particularly aggressive in the weeks leading up to spring break. The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over 120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.

Let’s look at the reality of the massive drug and corruption problem, kidnappings, murders and money. The U.S. Secretary of State Clinton was clear in her honest assessment of the problem. “Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent the weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians,” Clinton said. The other large illegal business that is smuggled into the U.S.A. that no one likes to talk about is Human Traffic for prostitution. This “business” is globally now competing with drugs in terms of profits.

It is critical to understand, however that the horrific violence in Mexico is over 95% confined to the three transshipping cities for these two businesses, Tijuana, Nogales, and Juarez. The Mexican government is so serious about fighting this, that they have committed over 30,000 soldiers to these borders towns. There was a thoughtful article written by a professor at the University of Juarez. He was reminded of the Prohibition years in the U.S.A. and compared Juarez to Chicago when Al Capone was conducting his reign of terror capped off with The Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre. During these years, just like Juarez today, 99% of the citizens went about their daily lives and attended classes, went to the movies, restaurants, and parks.

Is there corruption in Mexico? YES !!! Is there an equal amount of corruption related to this business in the U.S.A.? YES !!!. When you have a pair of illegal businesses that generate over $300,000,000,000 in sales you will find massive corruption. Make no mistake about the Mexican Drug Cartel; these “businessmen” are 100 times more sophisticated than the bumbling bootleggers during Prohibition. They form profitable alliances all over the U.S.A. They do cost benefit analysis of their business much better than the US automobile industry. They have found over the years that the cost of bribing U.S. and Mexican Border Guards and the transportation costs of moving marijuana from Sinaloa to California have cut significantly into profits. That is why over the past 5-7 years they have been growing marijuana in State and Federal Parks and BLM land all across America. From a business standpoint, this is a tremendous cost savings on several levels. Let’s look at California as an example as one of the largest consumers. When you have $14.2 billion of Marijuana grown and consumed in one state, there is savings on transportation, less loss of product due to confiscation and an overall reduction cost of bribery with law enforcement and parks service people. Another great savings is the benefit to their employees. The penalties in Mexico for growing range from 5-15 years. The penalties in California, on average are 18 months, and out in 8 months. The same economic principles are now being applied to the methamphetamine factories.

FOX News continues to scare people with its focus on kidnapping. There are kidnappings in Mexico. The concentration of kidnappings has been in Mexico City, among the very rich and the three aforementioned border Cities. With the exception of Mexico City, the number one city for kidnappings among NAFTA countries is Phoenix, Arizona with over 359 in 2008. The Phoenix Police estimate that twice that number of kidnappings goes unreported, because like Mexico 99% of these crimes were directly related to drug and human traffic. Phoenix, unfortunately, is geographically profitable transshipping location. Mexicans, just like 99% of U.S. Citizens during prohibition, go about their daily lives all over the country. They get up, go to school or work and live their lives untouched by the border town violence.

These same protectionist news sources have misled the public as to the real danger from the swine flu in Mexico and temporary devastated the tourism business. As of May 27 2009 there have been 87 deaths in Mexico from the swine flu. During those same five months there have been 36 murdered school children in Chicago. By their logic, if 87 deaths from the swine flu in Mexico warrants canceling flights and cruise ships to Mexico, then close all roads and highways in the USA because of record 43,359 automobile related deaths in the USA in 2008.

What is just getting underway is what many are calling the “Largest southern migration to Mexico of people and real estate assets since the Civil War” A significant percentage of the Baby Boomers have been doing the research and are making the life changing decision to move out of the U.S.A. The number one retirement destination in the world is Mexico. There are already over 2,000,000 US and Canadian property owners in Mexico. The most conservative number of American and Canadian Baby Boomers who are on their way to owning property in Mexico for full or part time living in the next 15 years is over 6,000,000. Do the math on 6,000,000 people buying a $300,000 house or condo and you will understand why the U.S. Government is trying to tax this massive shift of money to Mexico through H.R. 3056. The U.S. government calls this “The Tax Collection Responsibility Act of 2007”. Those who will have to pay it are calling this the EXIT TAX.

Mexico: A better economic choice than China

Another large exodus from the U.S.A is high paying skilled jobs. The job shift in automobile sector, both car and parts manufacturing, is already known by most investors. In the last few months as John Deere and Caterpillar have been laying off thousands of workers in the U.S.A., and hiring equal numbers in Mexico. The most recent industry that is making the shift is the aerospace manufacturers. In the city of Zacatecas there is currently a $210 million aerospace facility being built. With the 11 U.S. companies moving there, it is estimated to provide over 200,000 new high paying jobs in the coming years. One of the main factors for the shift in job south to Mexico instead of China is realistic analysis of total production, labor and delivery costs. While the labor costs in China are 40% less on average, the overall transportation costs and inherent risks of a long distance supply chain, and quality control issues, gives Mexico a distinct financial advantage.

Mexico’s real economic future

Mexico has avoided completely the subprime problem that has devastated the U.S. banking industry. The Mexican banks are healthy and profitable. Mexico has a growing and very healthy middle and upper middle class. The very recent introduction of residential financing has Mexico in a unique position of having over 90% of current homeowners owning their house outright. U.S. banks are competing for the Mexican, Canadian and American cross border loan business. It is and will continue to be a very safe and very profitable business. These same banks that were loaning in a reckless manner have learned their lesson and are loaning here the old fashioned way. They require a minimum of a 680 credit score, 30% down payment, and verifiable income that can support the loan. In most areas of Mexico where Baby Boomers are moving to, with the exception of Puerto Penasco (which did not have a national and international base of buyers), there is no real estate bubble. The higher end markets ($2-20 million) in many of these destinations are going through a modest correction. The Baby Boomers market here is between $200,000 and $600,000. With the continuing demand inside the Bay of Banderas, that price point, in the coming years, will disappear. This is the reason the Mexican government is spending billions of dollars on more infrastructure north along the coast all the way up to Mazatlan.

The other major area where America has become overpriced is in the field of health care. This massive shift of revenues is estimated to add 5-7% to Mexico’s GDP. The name for this “business” is Medical Tourism. The two biggest competitors for Mexico were Thailand and India. Thailand and India’s biggest drawback is geography. Also recent events, Thailand’s inability to keep a government in place and the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai, have helped Mexico capture close to half of this growth industry. In Mexico today there are over 56 world class hospitals being built to keep up with this business.

Mexico is currently sitting on a cash surplus and an almost balanced budget. Most Americans have never heard of Carlos Slim until he loaned the New York Times $250 million. After that it became clear to many investors around the world what Mexicans already knew: that Mexico had been able to avoid the worst of the U.S. economic devastation. Mexico’s resilience is to be admired. When the U.S. Federal Reserve granted a $30 billion loan to each of the following countries Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Brazil, Mexico reinvested the money in Treasury bonds in an account in New York City.

According to oil traders, Mexico’s Pemex wisely as the price of oil shot to $147 a barrel put in place an investment strategy that hinged on oil trading in the range of $38-$60 a barrel. Since the beginning of 2009 Mexico has been collecting revenues on hedged positions that give them $90-$110 per barrel today. Mexico’s recent and under reported oil discovery in the Palaeo Channels of Chicontepec has placed it third in the world for oil reserves, right behind Canada and Saudi Arabia.

The following is a quote from Rosalind Wilson, President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce on March 19, 2009. “The strength of the Mexican economic system makes the country a favorite destination for Canadian investment”.

OPPORTUNITIES: WHY PUERTO VALLARTA & THE RIVIERA NAYARIT?

The answer is simple and old fashioned: SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

The area of Puerto Vallarta/Riviera Nayarit inside the Bay of Banderas is an investor’s dream. This area has the comprehensive infrastructure in place, world class hospitals and dental care, natural investment protection from the Sierra Madre Mountains, endless future water supply, low to nonexistent crime, international airport, and limited supply inside the Bay, first class private bilingual schools and higher than average appreciation potential. Like many areas in Mexico there is large demand for full and part time retirement living and a lot of construction underway to meet this demand. Pre construction of course is where the best bargains are available.

I would offer a word of caution for investors in Mexico. Do not be seduced by the endless natural beauty that is everywhere, both inland in colonial towns and along thousands of miles of beach. Apply conservative medium and long term investment strategies without emotion. The demand for full and part time living by American and Canadian Baby Boomers is evident throughout the country. The top two choice locations are ocean front, and ocean view. The third overall choice, which is less expensive, is inland in one of the many beautiful colonial towns or small cities.

Mexico, with the world’s 13th largest GDP, is no longer a “Third World Country”, but rather a fast growing, economically secure state, as the most recent five-year history of its financial markets when compared to the U.S.A.’s financial markets suggests.

DOW JONES AVERAGES MAY 2004 10,200 MAY 2009 8,200 20% LOSS IN 5 YEARS

MEXICAN BOLSA MAY 2004 10,000 MAY 2009 23,000 130% GAIN IN 5 YEARS

I am glad to share all of my research with investors.

Related Resources

• MexInvestNow.com
• Focus On Mexico

This insightful article was written by Charles Simpson and is reprinted here with his permission. He can be reached at info@mexinvestnow.com. Please visit his web site at Mexinvestnow.com

WITH its breezy blue skies and baroque architecture, San Miguel de Allende has been a tropical haven for expatriates and retirees since the 1930s. The recent housing boom drew an even larger flock of snowbirds (mostly American) to this city in central Mexico, and with it came a new perch for post-hippie boutiques, vegan organic cafes and uneven art galleries. Old-timers started grousing about its Disneyfication. Luckily, the colonial town — which dates back to the 16th century and still bears traces of Spanish, Creole and Native American cultures — was designated a Unesco World Heritage site in 2008. While San Miguel doesn’t need any more attention, the designation helps ensure that the town’s candy-colored haciendas, romantic cobblestone lanes and rose-tinted turrets are around to survive another housing bubble.

Friday

4 p.m.
1) MOSS AND MARIACHI

Get a sense of San Miguel’s understated colonial grandeur with a stroll along the palm-lined paths of Parque Juárez, a sun-dappled garden with pocked stone pillars and archways and fountains tarnished with mildew or overrun with moss. Hushed streets and lush trees occupy this part of town — as well as artists and writers, like Michael Cristofer, the playwright and filmmaker, who owns a Spanish colonial home insulated by beautiful gardens. If you return to the park after dark, there’s a good chance you’ll catch an impromptu concert of one-man banjo bands and mariachi singers.

7 p.m.
2) DINE AND DANCE

The city’s food scene is less riveting than one would expect from a melting pot of Mexican and expat cultures, but one exception is Tio Lucas Restaurant & Bar (Calle Mesones 103; 52-415-152-4996). The steakhouse extends to a crowded patio for outside dining under strings of warmly lighted star-shaped lanterns. Toothsome steaks, strong margaritas and warmed beet root and goat cheese salads mixed tableside by the chef are what attract return customers. Dinner for two with drinks is about 600 pesos, or about $48 at 12.45 pesos to the dollar. The restaurant is decorated with Mexican crafts and stenciled cutouts of dancing skeletons. Tio Lucas doubles as a jazz joint, with nightly performances at 9 p.m.

10 p.m.
3) MITTE IN MEXICO

Night life in San Miguel tends to fall along two lines: you either scream over piercing club tracks or you don’t. On Calle Umaran, girls in flouncy skirts stand outside seedy sports bars teasing tousled-haired boys. Steps away, Mexican women sit in the bosky El Jardín with grandchildren on their laps listening to mariachi bands or watching fireworks bloom overhead. The mellow alternative nearby is Berlin Bar and Cafe (Calle Umaran 19; 52-415-154-9432). Run by expatriates from Germany, this chill and trendy bar draws a silver fox set who stop by for its strong drinks and artsy crowd. Couples chat and listen to jazz in candlelit nooks near a bar decorated with huge paintings of artists and intellectuals from Weimar Berlin and other periods in Germany’s history.

Saturday

9 a.m.
4) DESAYUNO TO GO

People stand in line for coffee at La Ventana Café Orgánico de Chiapas (Diez de Sollano y Dávalos 11; 52-415 154-7728) for a good reason. It’s not just because the organic coffee is dark and rich and the pastries fresh and flaky, but because you can’t actually go inside: La Ventana is a takeout window on the side of a faded yellow hacienda. Order an espresso and a warm croissant for 59 pesos. Take your breakfast two blocks down the road to El Jardín and sit on a bench beneath the lollypop-shaped laurel trees, where you’ll have a moment without the crowds to appreciate streaks of early-morning sunlight on La Parroquia church.

11:30 a.m.
5) FEW GOOD FINDS

Souvenir shops selling Day of the Dead skeleton dolls are everywhere, which means shopping here can quickly become dull. For quirkier finds, walk east away from the center of town to Mixta (Calle Pila Seca 16A, Centro; 52-415-152-7343), a new shop that sells fine silver bangles and earrings, homemade cards and aprons stitched by local women. Farther north is Fábrica La Aurora (Calzada de la Aurora, Colonia Aurora; 52-415-152-1012; www.fabricalaaurora.com), a former turn-of-the-century textile mill turned into a design and art center. One highlight is Galería Manuel Chacon, which carries contemporary art.

1:30 p.m.
6) BURRITOVILLE

When Rodrigo Pak Sautto wasn’t in upstate New York selling burritos out of an aluminum camper outside Bard College, he was building his business in San Miguel making yogurt smoothies and granola at his now popular Café Media Naranja (Calle Hidalgo 83). Housed in a tiny shoebox of a cafe, it attracts crunchy Anglos and earthy vegans who stop in for organic coffees and a quick lunch of vegetarian burritos and curried lentil soup (37 to 90 pesos) and to surf its free Wi-Fi.

4 p.m.
7) CRAFTY CURIOSITIES

Down a narrow alley behind the city’s main fruit and vegetable market is the Mercado de Artesanias (between Calle Colegio and Calle Loreto), a vibrant mash of artists’ stalls where you’ll find everything from flossy fringed piñatas and punched-tin lanterns dangling overhead to baskets of cobalt blue glass beads and silver necklaces. Its offerings are more authentic than the trinkets and curios sold in the historic district, and possibly half the price.

8 p.m.
WORLD SPICES

Follow the well-heeled expats to the flagstone courtyard at The Restaurant (Sollano 16, Centro; 52-415-154-7862; www.therestaurantsanmiguel.com), an elegant and candlelit restaurant that serves international comfort dishes using organic ingredients from local ranchers, growers and dairy farmers. Donnie Masterton, the chef, changes the menu frequently. Recent dishes included a miso-marinated and broiled Pacific salmon with soy, ginger green beans, and grilled pork chops with white bean and cherry tomato ragout (each 200 pesos).

10:30 p.m.
9) LUCKY GAUCHOS

For a festive nightcap, make your way to Limrick (Calle Umaran 2), a busy bar in a soaring hacienda that takes its design cue from an Irish pub. Mexicans and Americans of every ilk, from the landed elite to the louche locals, chat in cozy booths, throw darts and watch soccer on the television. If the night still feels young, head to La Cucaracha (Calle Zacateros 22; 52-415-152-0196), an after-hours bar decorated with faded pinup posters and yellowing maps of the area. The crowd might include D-list actors in hiding and old gauchos parked permanently at the bar.

Sunday

10 a.m.
10) HOT BATH

Near the outskirts of San Miguel, underground hot springs percolate to the surface and form pools. A five-minute cab ride out of town takes you to La Gruta (six miles outside San Miguel), a slightly shabby water park and picnic spot favored by locals. Two small mineral hot springs and a grotto are bordered by stone retaining walls, palm trees, wildflowers and sprays of bougainvillea.

1 p.m.
11) CACTOPHILE’S PARADISE

Bird-watchers, outdoorsmen and city slickers will all appreciate the brambly valleys of El Charco del Ingenio Botanical Garden (El Charco del Ingenio; 52-415-154-8838; www.elcharco.org.mx), a 167-acre ecological reserve spanning cactus-lined canyons and spring-fed pools. A 40-peso fee gives you access to easy hiking trails festooned with giant agaves and nopal cactus where egrets and swallows roost and peck at spiny fruits. The greenhouse, which resembles a small airplane hangar, shelters hundreds of rare and endangered plants. It’s the kind of place locals come to take in the natural surrounding beauty, perhaps when things feel a little too Disney.

THE BASICS

The nearest commercial airports are Querétaro (about 45 miles away) and León-Guanajuato (about 70 miles). A recent Web search found a Continental Airlines flight from Newark to Querétaro, with a stopover in Houston, starting at about $550 for travel next month. The sometimes cheaper alternative is to fly into Mexico City, which offers more flights, and make the four-hour drive.

There is a wealth of hotels in San Miguel de Allende. The Casa de Sierra Nevada (Hospicio 42; 52-415-152-7040; www.casadesierranevada.com) occupies six renovated Spanish colonial mansions dating from the 16th century that were converted into 37 large rooms and suites. Deluxe rooms start at 2,695 pesos, or about $217 at 12.45 pesos to the dollar. The property features elaborately landscaped gardens and ornately colonnaded courtyards with fountains, swimming pools and lounges.

Casa del Parque (Calle Santa Elena 2; 52-415-152-7040), once a 17th-century fort and silver trade outpost, is now a rambling rent-by-the-room Spanish colonial villa facing the Parque Benito Juarez. Suites start at 4,140 Mexican pesos.